Bitcoin
A structural demand shock unlocked by the ETF. Entered on launch day. Exited on narrative peak.
The Entry: Institutional Access Unlocked
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) launched on January 11, 2024. This was the thesis. For years, institutional capital — pension funds, family offices, endowments, regulated asset managers — had wanted Bitcoin exposure and could not get it. No regulated custodial vehicle. No instrument they could put on a balance sheet without compliance problems. The ETF changed that overnight.
The mechanics were simple: a massive pool of pent-up institutional demand, suddenly able to buy, entering a market with a hard supply cap. New buyers. Fixed supply. Price goes up. This is not a philosophical argument about Bitcoin's value. It is a supply-demand argument about a structural market event.
The Exit: TRUMP Coin as the Peak Signal
On January 17, 2025 — days before Trump's inauguration — he launched a personal memecoin. $TRUMP. That was the exit signal.
When the most powerful political patron of Bitcoin pivots to running a memecoin days before taking office, something has broken. The institutional legitimacy that drove the ETF thesis gets quietly undermined. The narrative had reached maximum saturation.
+123.9% in one year. Clean exit. Capital redeployed into uranium. Bitcoin was always tactical, never permanent. When the structure that justified the position breaks, you leave.