One argument, in pieces.
Everything written here is filed against the layer it belongs to rather than by topic. Read top to bottom and it is one argument: the era is turning, so read the quadrant, decide with the compass, and hold the result as separate pockets.
The era
Why the premise matters before any position does, and what it costs to measure your wealth in a currency that is being printed at 8% a year.
The quadrant
Reading growth and inflation from market prices, and choosing the one asset each box rewards — mostly by eliminating the three it punishes.
Gold or bonds: you should only hold one at a time
Both sound safe. They work in opposite environments. Holding both at the same time usually means one of them is hurting you.
Why energy belongs in your portfolio even if you never think about oil
Energy stocks go up when almost everything else goes down. That's not a coincidence — it's one of the best protections a beginner can hold.
The currencies that protect you: CHF and SGD
Most currencies slowly lose value. A few don't. Holding ~10% in one of them is the last line of defense when everything else falls.
Invest where the country is doing well: how to use the macro map
A good business in a bad country goes nowhere. A mediocre business in a thriving country can return 50%.
The compass
Value moves, antifragility beats robustness in a turning world, decorrelation is the only free lunch, and danger is not risk.
How to find investments nobody is talking about yet
By the time it's on the news, most of the move is done. Read the macro regime before the narrative catches up.
Why uncorrelated assets matter more than high returns
Two portfolios with the same average return produce very different outcomes. The difference is whether they fall together.
Cash is stability, not a weapon
Cash inside the portfolio is a protection sleeve. Cash outside the portfolio is your personal floor. They are not the same thing.
The pockets
Running the book: sizing, trimming, exit conditions, and the thesis behind each position in the liquid pocket.
Trim vs cut: two very different decisions
Selling part of a position and selling all of it look similar from the outside. They are opposite decisions based on opposite diagnoses.
Let winners run, but know your exit conditions before you buy
"Let it run" is not a complete strategy. You need to know in advance what would actually change your mind.
How often should you check your portfolio
Monthly is enough for a sanity check. Quarterly is enough for rebalancing. Anything more invites noise-driven decisions.
Tax optimization: fewer moves, but some are required
Sell only when the reason to sell is stronger than the cost of the tax. The goal isn't to never sell — it's to never sell unnecessarily.
What to do with new money: DCA vs lump sum
Each tool has a specific job. Beginners default to the wrong one.
Gold
Property, not a promise. The only asset no government can print or confiscate.
Swiss Franc
The best-managed money in the world. The shock absorber the portfolio needs.
Energy / NOK
Stay permanently exposed to energy. Change the instrument when the market gives you a reason to.
Chile
The South American reform play with a structural copper dividend and institutional floor.
Asia ex-Japan
The biggest, fastest-growing economic bloc in the world. Historically cheap. Structurally underowned.
Nuclear
AI needs 24/7 baseload power. Nuclear is the only source that delivers it at scale. Uranium is the fuel.
Argentina
A country at its floor. The Milei bet on reform, liberalism, and EM mean reversion.
Chinese Bonds
State-managed carry. Sovereign backing. Income while the equity regime wasn't ready.
Bitcoin
A structural demand shock unlocked by the ETF. Entered on launch day. Exited on narrative peak.
The gaps the doctrine demands.
Filing the existing work against the four layers makes the holes obvious. These are the pieces the argument needs and does not yet have.
- The eraPrudence is the real danger
- The era8% a year: the actual risk-free hurdle
- The eraSeventy years: the working life of a currency
- The quadrantManaging by exclusion
- The quadrantManage the balance sheet, not the trading account
- The compassWhy a good portfolio should annoy everyone
- The compassDanger is not risk